Forecasts for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in July 2024: expert opinion

Bitcoin ended June down 7%, making it the second month in 2024 that the top cryptocurrency ended lower. In April, losses amounted to almost 15%, while in other months BTC showed growth with dynamics from 1% to 44%. In the second quarter as a whole, Bitcoin fell in price by 12%.

Historical data published by Coinglass showed that July typically closes higher, with an average of 7.3%. Observations since 2013 indicate seven successful months with growth of up to 24% versus five unprofitable months with a decline of at least 10%.

Coinbase exchange analysts David Duong and David Han believe positive seasonality in July and improved liquidity could support the market. Analysts at Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital also noted that Bitcoin is trending towards a strong rebound, especially after a negative June, with many signs pointing to a bullish July.

Experts interviewed by RBC-Crypto gave their forecasts about the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate in July. Cryptocurrency market analyst Viktor Pershikov noted that fundamental metrics complicate the growth of cryptocurrency rates. He pointed to several factors that contributed to Bitcoin's weakness at the end of the second quarter: sales from Mt.Gox, the lack of a significant decline in US inflation and pressure from miners.

Professional crypto trader Boris Zabavnikov expressed concerns about the distribution of bitcoins from the bankrupt Mt. Gox. In his opinion, the distribution of bitcoins Mt. Gox in mid-July causes more rumors and speculation than facts, but this event is definitely not positive for the thin market.

Experts, although they expect global growth in the crypto market, do not have much hope for July. Pershikov believes that it is naive to expect Bitcoin to grow in July, as well as the capitalization of the entire market to grow. However, he noted that individual tokens can post gains even as the benchmark falls, as the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector did in June.

Zabavnikov highlighted the imminent approval of an ETF for Ethereum as a possible growth driver for the crypto market. He emphasized the importance not of the launch of the “ether” ETF itself, but of the behavior of the ETH price in the following weeks after the actual start of trading in the funds’ shares. In his opinion, the market can show strength and the exchange rate dynamics of recent months will be the culmination of sales, which will allow the purchase of altcoins to begin. However, if the market shows weakness, interest in crypto assets will begin to return, probably not earlier than the fall.

Risks of repeating the Bitcoin ETF scenario

The expert also pointed out the risk of a repetition of the scenario after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, when, contrary to market expectations for the growth of the main cryptocurrency, the price of BTC lost 20% in the first two weeks of trading in these funds. This coincided with an outflow of more than $2 billion from Grayscale's fund.

Experts do not rule out an intensification of the downward trend in capitalization and attempts by BTC to break through the current range, falling below $56-58 thousand. However, they also see potential for growth if new ETFs are approved and the market positions of cryptocurrencies are strengthened.