Bitcoin in September: ‘Seasonal Slump’ – What Opportunities Should Traders Watch Out For?
Date: 2024-09-11 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
As investors brace for Bitcoin’s “seasonal slide” in September, NYDIG Head of Research Greg Cipolaro highlights potential opportunities.
In NYDIG’s September 10 market update, Cipolaro noted that short-term catalysts for Bitcoin are “limited” as the cryptocurrency enters one of its most challenging months.
September has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin holders, with an average decline of 5.9% over the past 13 years, dating back to 2011. Cipolaro suggested that this dynamic could repeat itself, noting that Bitcoin “may be stuck in a seasonal slide.”
However, despite the prevailing negative sentiment, he expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that there are still opportunities in September.
Unobvious Opportunities: What's in Store for Bitcoin in September?
Cipolaro added that Bitcoin investors may need to look beyond the crypto market for catalysts, with a particular focus on macroeconomic developments.
The most eye-catching event is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18, which will focus on interest rates.
Expectations are high after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was "time" to cut interest rates. A 25 basis point cut is seen as a more favorable outcome that could help propel Bitcoin's price higher in the long term by easing concerns about a slowing US economy and recession.
Conversely, a more aggressive rate cut could heighten recession fears and lead to a significant correction in Bitcoin, with some analysts predicting a drop of up to 20%.
Traders are currently pricing a 27% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. However, 10x Research warns that this is at odds with their view of the “dominant consensus,” which is leaning toward a steeper rate cut.
The Boost Period: Q4 2024 Forecasts
While September has been a tough month for Bitcoin, Cipolaro noted that a “seasonally strong fourth quarter” is less than three weeks away.
October and November are typically Bitcoin’s strongest months, with average gains expected of 16.1% and 40.6%, respectively, according to NYDIG data.
This outlook is supported by other analysts, such as popular pseudonymous trader Titan of Crypto, who points to the final quarter of this year as a potential breakout point, describing it as “epic” for price action.
Meanwhile, historical and technical models suggest that Bitcoin is still “in play” at a six-figure price as we approach 2025.
Cipolaro echoed this view, noting that comparisons to previous cycles can indicate where the current position is within a broader bullish trend. The recent uncertainty and volatility could just be a bullish phase.
Ahead of Q4, Cipolaro singled out the upcoming US presidential election in November as the most “overhanging” factor for the crypto market.
Former President Donald Trump has established himself as a pro-crypto candidate, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on digital assets remains less well-known, creating uncertainty and increasing volatility.
