Wintermute Launches OutcomeMarket and US Election Prediction Tokens
Date: 2024-09-18 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Algorithmic cryptocurrency trader and liquidity provider Wintermute is launching OutcomeMarket, a prediction market for the US presidential election, powered by Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs oracle. The HARRIS and TRUMP tokens are expected to be available on multiple blockchains starting in the fourth week of September.
Using a permissioned smart contract developed by Wintermute, the prediction market will be available on Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum, eliminating the need for users on those networks to transfer their assets to participate.
A Flexible and Reliable Prediction Market
The tokens will be tradable on any centralized or decentralized platform and can be used in DeFi applications. Bebop, WOO, and Backpack will be the first cryptocurrency exchanges to list HARRIS and TRUMP.
Chaos Labs’ oracle is a “unique integration of advanced AI and LLM with risk models” that “delivers extremely accurate and tamper-proof data by building real-time risk assessments directly into the protocol,” according to Chaos Labs CEO Omer Goldberg. Wintermute is an investor in Chaos Labs.
Americans May Not Win Even If Their Candidate Wins
Prediction markets allow people to bet on whether a certain statement or event will come true in the future by buying tokens representing the expected outcome. These markets are susceptible to manipulation, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In August, the CFTC proposed a rule banning event contracts — prediction market tokens — under pressure from U.S. lawmakers. The court overturned a CFTC order barring prediction market Kalshi from betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. However, the court later granted stays barring Kalshi from continuing to bet on the election. Market leader Polymarket does not allow U.S. users.
Gaevoy told Bloomberg that regarding OutcomeMarket, “The decision on how to manage U.S. exposure will be up to the trading platforms that host the market, but I’m sure most, if not all, already do not allow U.S. customers.”
