Bitcoin to Return at Least 25% in 4 Years
Date: 2024-10-01 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past four years has remained above 50%, significantly outperforming the Vanguard Information Technology Index ETF (VGT).
Bitcoin’s growth history
From 2016 to the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s CAGR fluctuated, but always remained higher than VGT’s. In 2016, Bitcoin’s CAGR peaked at over 200%, but by early 2017 it had dropped to around 50%. However, by mid-2017, there was a new surge, and by 2019, the growth rate had again exceeded 150%. Another significant increase was recorded at the end of 2021. While there has been some downward momentum since 2021, Bitcoin’s CAGR remains stable at over 50% in 2024, despite falling to 20-30% in 2022 and 2023.
Forecast for the Future
To maintain its current growth rate, Bitcoin would need to exceed its 2021 high by 50% in 2025, which would be around $103,500. Otherwise, the CAGR could fall below 50% again.
As for the VGT fund, its CAGR has been relatively stable over this time, ranging from 0% to 35%. Interestingly, VGT temporarily outperformed Bitcoin from late 2017 to late 2021, confirming that such events are rare for traditional assets.
Expert Opinions
A Bitcoin engineer who goes by the name apsk32 noted that the data shows that no one has lost money on Bitcoin in any four-year period. However, the slowdown in growth could indicate a narrowing of the opportunity for high returns. While Bitcoin's early adoption phase represents a unique financial opportunity, future returns could become less significant as growth slows.
