According to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, Lucas argues that the asset is nearing year three, the point at which explosive growth typically occurs.
“Bitcoin completes year two of its four-year cycle next month and enters year three of its historically explosive cycle,” Lucas said in a social media post on Oct. 8.
His analysis, which relies on identifying market peaks and troughs using the four-year cycle, comes amid extreme uncertainty as markets await geopolitical developments, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and concerns about economic stability.
Lucas noted that Bitcoin is forming a broad downside consolidation after a pullback from the $73,835 high reached on March 14. However, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future prospects given the recent consolidation.
“We have an eight-month base here, sentiment is refreshed, rates are coming down. I mean, that’s the perfect scenario,” Lucas added, noting that the combination of a change in investor sentiment and likely interest rate cuts could trigger a parabolic uptrend.
For this bullish scenario to materialize, market participants would need to push Bitcoin above the upper trendline of the broad consolidation by the end of October to confirm entry into year three of the cycle.