US Presidential Race Bets Reach $4B on Election Day
Date: 2024-11-06 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: BUSINESS
As voters head to the polls on November 5, betting volumes on the US presidential election are approaching $4 billion across leading prediction platforms, according to a Cointelegraph analysis. Web3 platform PolyMarket is in a dominant position, attracting more than $3.3 billion in bets on the presidential election despite being banned from operating in the US.
Among the new US platforms that have gained popularity since October are Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers, which have collectively attracted more than $500 million in election betting volumes. Republican Donald Trump currently leads the way in predictions, with PolyMarket putting his chances of winning at 62%, while Kalshi and Interactive Brokers are giving him around 58%.
Election betting markets allow users to buy contracts with a binary payout based on the outcome of political events. These markets cover not only the presidential race, but also the Senate race and the possible resignation of the New York mayor. Betting on the outcome of the vote and the margin of victory of candidates is especially popular, attracting about $1 billion in trading activity, according to Cointelegraph.
Since October 7, Kalshi has offered contracts on the outcome of the US elections, becoming the first platform to allow such predictions after winning a court case against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Robinhood introduced contracts for betting on the presidential election on October 28, and has processed about 200 million such trades. Interactive Brokers has also launched betting markets, attracting about $50 million in volume. Kalshi began accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), and later added support for the Polygon network.
But in October, PolyMarket came under fire for manipulating volumes — about 30% of bets were found to be “wash trading,” according to investigations. Five large investors also allegedly bought up most of the contracts, betting on Trump to win. Payouts to PolyMarket winners could be delayed until January 20, 2025, unless the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC agree on a clear winner.
