Bernstein Forecast: Ethereum Staking May Become Part of an ETF

The review notes that against the backdrop of declining traditional financial rates, Ethereum's yield, reaching 3%, and with increasing network activity - up to 4-5%, is becoming increasingly attractive to investors. Experts emphasize the stability of the asset's fundamental indicators and a favorable risk-return ratio.

Despite the 57% increase in the Ethereum price since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has lagged behind competitors such as Bitcoin (+125%) and Solana (+122%). The reasons for this were the difficulty of confirming the status of "hard money" compared to Bitcoin, competition from faster first-layer (L1) blockchains, as well as dependence on second-layer (L2) solutions, which complicates the user experience and limits the growth of fees.

Among the factors that can improve the position of Ethereum, analysts name the introduction of staking in ETFs, an increase in the inflow of funds into funds, and an increase in network activity. The transition of the network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism and the introduction of the token burning algorithm allowed the supply to stabilize at 120 million ETH. Of these, 28% are in staking, and another 10% are in lending operations and L2 bridges.

Additionally, Bernstein experts pointed out that over the past year, 60% of available Ethereum coins have not participated in transactions, which indicates a formed base of long-term investors. These factors ensure a balanced ratio of supply and demand, creating a favorable market situation.

Earlier, in May, the SEC approved Forms 19b-4 for Ethereum ETFs, and two months later reviewed S-1 applications, but the staking option was not included in them. Commission representative Hester Pierce said that the functionality of the products may be revised in the future.

Analysts, including Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, believe that the introduction of staking and the option to redeem in kind will become possible if the political situation in the United States changes. Variant lawyer Jake Chervinsky expressed confidence that it is only a question of time, and not whether such changes are possible in principle.