Polymarket recorded a surge in interest in betting on a new pope
Date: 2025-04-22 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: BUSINESS
After the news of the death of Pope Francis, interest in the market "Will there be a new pope in 2025?" on the Polymarket platform has sharply increased. In the morning, the cost of a bet on a positive outcome was 35 cents (35% probability), but by the evening the figure reached $1, which is equivalent to the participants' complete confidence in the change of the pontiff. The total volume of transactions exceeded $2 million.
According to the rules of the platform, the outcome will be considered positive if by the end of 2025, official Vatican sources or major international media confirm the election of a new head of the church.
Francis's health problems began back in February: on the 14th, he was hospitalized with a respiratory infection, and subsequently doctors diagnosed bilateral pneumonia. The betting market for the next pope opened on February 20, just six days after his hospitalization.
Later, on February 25, Polymarket added two new pools: the first is dedicated to specific candidates, the second to the expected continent of origin of the future pontiff.
In the first case, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines was the favorite. Others mentioned include Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, as well as Cardinals Peter Erde and Peter Turkson. The explanation for the pool says that after Francis's death, the process of convening a papal conclave was launched, where a vote is held until a two-thirds majority is reached. The process can take two to three weeks.
In the second pool, where predictions are made on the continent, there is no clear favorite yet. However, a lot of attention is focused on the regions of the Global South - Asia and Africa. Tagle, being from the Philippines, is one of the most likely candidates to become the first pope from Asia. Despite this, market participants estimate Europe's chances of winning at 56% (as of 16:30 Moscow time), while the probability of an Asian candidate being elected is about 31%.
Thus, in the conditions of uncertainty and rumors, the Polymarket market is turning into a platform where users try to predict the outcome of one of the most significant events in the Catholic world.
