Bitcoin on the way to $1 million: what factors play a key role
Date: 2025-04-29 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Bernstein analysts believe that short-term correlations of bitcoin with gold or Nasdaq do not reflect its real dynamics. Instead, they highlight more significant long-term factors: a decrease in retail activity, increased corporate accumulation, and a restoration of the inflow into spot ETFs. All this leads to a contraction of supply, contributing to the price growth.
The interest of institutional players is confirmed by the launch of a new company Twenty One Capital, which is backed by Cantor Fitzgerald, SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex. The fund is focused on long-term accumulation of bitcoin and already at the start expects to collect 42,000 BTC. In addition, it plans to attract $385 million through bonds and another $200 million from the sale of shares. Bernstein believes that this structure follows a strategy similar to that of MicroStrategy, which accumulated $22 billion in 2024 and another $8.6 billion in 2025. At the same time, Tether, one of the project participants, received $13 billion in profit last year, which gives the company additional stability.
According to Bernstein, 80 public companies control a total of about 700,000 BTC, which is 3.4% of the maximum possible issue. Exchange-traded funds own more than 5.5% of the total volume of bitcoin, which is equivalent to $109 billion, of which 33% is under institutional management. Investment consultants and hedge funds are the main holders of ETFs, with shares of 48% and 31%, respectively. Together, corporate and exchange reserves control almost 9% of the issue.
In addition, the US President's order to form government reserves in Bitcoin could become a new growth trigger. Although the impact of this initiative is not yet reflected in the current price, the potential for its implementation in the future is high.
BTC volumes on exchanges fell to 13% from 16% at the end of 2023. Although in dollar terms, the reserves have grown, the decline in coins is seen as a bullish signal. However, some analysts, such as Checkmate, believe that the outflow may be a false signal due to movements between wallets. He recommends monitoring the M2 aggregate - the volume of money supply, which has historically supported the growth of risky assets.
Bernstein forecasts $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2030, and $1 million by 2033. The basis is a limited supply of 21 million coins, of which 19.9 million have already been mined, and almost the entire remaining volume will be mined over the next decade.
Meanwhile, traders predict a correction before a new rise. CrypNuevo does not rule out a move to $97,000 after a retest of $91,850. Analyst Roman talks about a possible drawdown to $88,000, while Matthew Hyland allows for a short-term rise to $99,500 before a decline. Skew advises watching the range of $90,000–92,000, pointing to investor indecision.
Bitcoin is holding around $94,500 at the time of writing, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining in neutral territory at 54.
