US Recession Bets Reach Record Highs on Polymarket
Date: 2025-05-01 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
Interest in bets on a recession in the US economy has increased sharply on the Polymarket crypto platform. After the publication of data on a decline in US GDP in the first quarter of 2025, participants estimated the probability of a recession at 67% - this is the highest level since the beginning of the year. The total volume of transactions in this pool reached $3.8 million.
According to Bloomberg, US GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year - this is the first decline since 2022. Experts attribute the key factors to the growth of imports before the introduction of new duties, as well as a reduction in consumer spending. Economic changes are associated with the trade policy pursued by the Donald Trump administration.
Amid news of declining economic indicators, the S&P 500 index began the trading day with a decline, and the yield on US government bonds fell. In response to the market reaction, Donald Trump, in his post on Truth Social, said that the current economic situation is the consequences of Joe Biden's policies, not new tariffs. He emphasized that the return of companies to the United States has already begun, and called on citizens to be patient, promising an economic boom in the future.
The cryptocurrency market did not stand aside either. In two hours, the Bitcoin rate fell by $1.5 thousand and by 17:20 Moscow time on April 30 was about $93.4 thousand, which is 1.6% lower than the previous day.
One hundred days have passed since Trump took office, during which he has already managed to make significant changes to the regulation of the crypto industry. In particular, the heads of key financial departments were replaced, work on the regulatory framework for digital assets was accelerated, and it was proposed to create a state reserve in bitcoins.
The possibility of creating such a national bitcoin reserve is also actively discussed on Polymarket. Participants estimate the chances of the initiative being implemented at 45%, while previously this figure fluctuated between 38% and 77%. Platform users have bet a total of $2.7 million on this event.
