10x Research Predicts Strategy Stock to Fall as Bitcoin Rise
Date: 2025-05-27 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: BUSINESS
Marcus Thielen-led research firm 10x Research has recommended investors short Strategy (ticker: MSTR) stock as it loses correlation with rising Bitcoin. In a recent report, the company notes that despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, Strategy stock has begun to show weakness, indicating a decline in investor enthusiasm.
Thielen’s trading idea involves using a bearish put spread, which involves buying a put option with a strike price of $370 and selling a put option at $300. Both instruments expire on June 27. This strategy could benefit from the stock falling to $300 or lower by that date, suggesting a significant decline in the stock’s value.
MSTR closed Friday down 7% at $369. Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, is the largest public holder of Bitcoin, holding 576,230 BTC. Since 2020, the company has been actively accumulating the cryptocurrency using borrowed funds.
Over the past few years, MSTR has become a popular vehicle for institutional investors looking for indirect exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning the asset. However, the stock has recently become disconnected from the BTC chart: while the cryptocurrency climbed above $111,000 last week, MSTR was trading 22% below its November 2024 high of $474.
According to Thielen, this divergence shows that Strategy’s momentum and volatility are weakening amid rising Bitcoin. While BTC continues to set records, MSTR remains far from its previous highs. A similar divergence was already observed in 2021, when the company's shares failed to maintain the growth rate of BTC at the peak of the bull market.
While history does not guarantee a similar development in the future, analysts consider the divergence between Strategy shares and Bitcoin to be a worrying signal. This may reflect a cooling of interest in cryptocurrencies from the traditional financial sector. At the same time, the put spread on MSTR shares can serve not only as a bet on a decline, but also as a hedging tool in the event of a possible correction in BTC.
