CoinDesk analysts reported a noticeable change in the behavior of the largest Bitcoin holders - owners of wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have switched from accumulation to asset distribution. This is confirmed by a decrease in the Accumulation Trend Score indicator to 0.4, which indicates the prevalence of sales among this category of investors.
Earlier, in April, when the Bitcoin rate fell to $ 75,000, whales were actively increasing their positions. However, now, against the backdrop of reaching historical highs, they have begun to take profits and protect themselves from a possible correction. This is confirmed by the movement of funds from non-custodial wallets back to centralized exchanges, which usually indicates preparation for sales.
According to on-chain analysis, the growth of the first cryptocurrency has led to a sharp increase in unrealized profits - this figure has exceeded two standard deviations from the norm. Such levels are historically accompanied by market euphoria, which is usually followed by short-term periods of high volatility and correction.
Despite signs of some participants leaving the market, sales volumes have not yet reached extreme values. The metric of profit realization based on a 7-day moving average so far corresponds to only 14.4% of all trading days. The SOPR indicator also shows that the current average profit (16%) is still far from historical peaks, which were observed in only 8% of cases.
The derivatives market is seeing an increase in interest in the use of borrowed funds. Since April, open interest in Bitcoin futures has grown by 51% — from $36.8 billion to $55.6 billion, while options have grown by 126%, increasing to $46.2 billion. This may indicate both increased investor confidence and increased risks associated with the use of leverage.
Analysts have also identified potential support levels: $91,800–95,900 (corresponding to 111 DMA and 200 DMA) and $100,200 (0.5 standard deviation from the MVRV indicator). The upper limit of the current growth may be around $119,400.
Experts note that the market has not yet reached its limits, and it still has potential for further growth. On May 30, options worth $10.1 billion are expected to expire on Deribit, which may cause a sharp change in prices. At the same time, for June and July, activity is focused on options with targets of $115,000 and $120,000.