XRP Price Could Drop 20% Before Next Rise
Date: 2025-07-17 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Over the past week, XRP has risen by more than 25%, peaking at $3.01 and closing at $2.93. Despite this positive trend, internal blockchain data and market statistics signal a possible short-term decline in the token’s value. Large holder activity and increasing XRP reserves on exchanges create the preconditions for a price correction reminiscent of past local highs, which were accompanied by a drop of almost 20%.
XRP reserves on Binance have currently reached 2.96 billion coins, a level similar to the May 2025 high, when the token’s value was around $2.54. After that period, a significant decline to $2.01 followed. Typically, an increase in reserves on exchanges means that investors are transferring tokens to the exchanges in preparation for a sale, which increases the likelihood of an upcoming sell-off.
In addition, the number of large XRP transactions - with amounts over a million dollars - has reached a three-month high. Such surges in whale activity often herald token distribution and subsequent price corrections, with large players locking in profits at peaks.
From a technical perspective, an important support level is considered to be the $2.34 mark - the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous rise from a low of $1.90 to a high of $3.03. A decline from the current $2.93 to $2.34 would see the price fall by about 20%, which coincides with the correction recorded in May. The closest support levels are the $2.80 and $2.77 zones (the 0.236 Fibonacci level), which previously held the price during pullbacks. If the price breaks these levels downwards, the decline may accelerate.
The turning point for the bearish scenario will be the maintenance of XRP above $2.77 and a decrease in reserves on exchanges - this will indicate the resumption of accumulation and the potential for further growth. Otherwise, a short-term correction is possible, which may become a preparatory stage before a new price rally.
Thus, despite the recent strong growth, the data on reserves and activity of large investors sets a tone for caution, indicating a possible drop in the XRP price before the next stage of growth.
