Strategy’s Bitcoin Premium Hits Lowest in Two Years: Risks for Investors
Date: 2025-09-05 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: BUSINESS
Since July 2025, Strategy (MSTR), controlled by Michael Saylor, has lost about a third of its value, while Bitcoin has only fallen by 10%. As a result, the premium for MSTR over its BTC reserves has sharply decreased. For investors, this indicator traditionally serves as an indicator of a company’s attractiveness.
Strategy was the first public organization to bet on storing cryptocurrencies as a corporate asset, and its success has inspired many other companies to take similar steps. In 2024, MSTR shares rose by almost 700%, significantly outpacing Bitcoin’s growth (about 150%). Thanks to this, the mNAV premium increased from 1.2 to 3.9. The growth of the stock allowed the company to actively borrow funds and use them for new BTC purchases.
According to Bitcointreasuries, Strategy acquired an additional 257,000 BTC in 2024 for more than $28 billion, bringing its total reserves to almost 450,000 coins by autumn. As of September 4, 2025, the company already owned 636,505 BTC, which is valued at more than $70 billion.
Investor interest was fueled by the fact that the company issued convertible bonds that promised income if the shares grew. For Strategy, this became a tool for financing bitcoin purchases with virtually no risk. Dozens of other companies followed this path: in total, over 180 organizations have accumulated more than 1 million BTC, and individual funds also invested in Ethereum.
However, in the second half of 2025, Strategy's model was put to the test. Instead of bonds, the company began issuing preferred shares (STRF, STRK ATM, STRD), which should have reduced the pressure on shareholders' shares. But the fall in the mNAV premium complicated the situation.
Since the end of 2024, the premium has fallen from 3.9 to 1.49. At the same time, despite the growth of Bitcoin by about 20%, MSTR shares have lost 40%. Moreover, the company broke its own promise not to issue new shares at a premium below 2.5 - in August, almost 900 thousand shares were sold. The proceeds were immediately used to buy BTC at its peak price of $ 124.5 thousand.
Experts warn: if the Bitcoin rate drops sharply, the mNAV indicator may decrease even more, and trust in Strategy and similar companies will be at risk. Charles Edwards from Capriole notes that a 50% drop in BTC will lead to a noticeable cooling of investor interest. Wintermute analysts point out that failure to keep promises to issue shares has already forced the company to reconsider its short-term strategy.
While MSTR has gone through a low premium period before (2021-2024), the company was able to continue to build reserves through debt instruments. Now, investors are questioning how sustainable Strategy's model is in the face of declining confidence in the digital asset market.
