Factors Holding Back XRP Growth in September

The main alarm signal was a noticeable increase in XRP reserves on Binance. If on August 31, there were approximately 2.9 billion coins on the exchange, then by September 7, this figure increased to 3.57 billion. Thus, in just the first week of the month, the inflow amounted to about 670 million XRP. As a rule, such movements mean that investors are preparing to sell assets, especially after the price has fallen by more than a quarter from the July maximum. Such pressure from the supply side often leads to increased volatility and price correction.

An equally alarming factor is the weakening of the XRP Ledger ecosystem. According to DeFiLlama, the total value of locked funds has decreased from $120 million to $98 million in two months. At the same time, trading volumes on built-in DEX platforms have fallen to $2.3 million per day, the lowest level since April and almost 90% below July levels. Even during the best periods, XRPL activity remained modest compared to other DeFi protocols, and the current decline highlights the loss of competitive positions and the waning interest of developers and traders in the ecosystem.

The third warning sign is the decline in interest in search queries. Google Trends statistics show that the XRP popularity index has fallen from 100 to 19 in two months. Interest in the “XRP ETF” topic has fallen especially noticeably, falling from 100 to 9 over the past month. Typically, such dynamics indicate a cooling of attention from the general audience and can lead to a drop in liquidity, making the market more vulnerable to manipulation and external factors, including the policies of the US Federal Reserve.

Nevertheless, the technical picture, according to a number of analysts, looks encouraging. Some experts note that the token managed to break out of the descending triangle, which is often interpreted as the beginning of a bullish impulse. In addition, XRP has been holding the $2.7–$2.8 range for several months, which may indicate that large investors have accumulated positions. Against this background, there are forecasts of a probable move to $6.00 by the end of the year.

Thus, September looks mixed for XRP: fundamental metrics warn of weakness, while technical analysis gives grounds for optimism. Investors will have to balance between risks and expectations of a possible rally.