Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million If the Fed Changes Course
Date: 2025-09-18 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, has reiterated his views on Bitcoin's prospects and outlined a scenario in which its price could rise to $1 million. His argument is based on the assumption that changes in Federal Reserve policy are inevitable and will directly impact the crypto market.
Hayes highlighted the testimony of Stephen Miran, a recent nominee for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, during a congressional hearing. He stated that the regulator's new goal could be to maintain "moderate long-term interest rates." The analyst believes this is a direct hint at the possible implementation of yield curve control (YCC).
Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, does not share the Donald Trump administration's stance on monetary policy. He focuses on the Fed's traditional goals of full employment and price stability, leaving long-term rates aside.
Hayes predicts that after Powell's departure, the Fed could be led by a candidate who supports Trump's policies. In this case, implementing the YCC would lead to negative real interest rates. This, he believes, would devalue the dollar and force investors to seek protection in alternative assets, among which Bitcoin would play a key role.
Hayes's arguments are supported by statements from members of the Trump administration. For example, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, writing in The Wall Street Journal, criticized the Fed for ignoring the goal of maintaining moderate long-term rates.
Hayes is confident that the Trump administration will pave the way for the explosive growth of the cryptocurrency market. In one of his posts in August, he noted that the current bullish cycle could last until 2026. Moreover, he suggests that as early as mid-year, the US government will begin active economic stimulus, which will intensify the upward trend in the markets.
According to Hayes, the combination of the Federal Reserve's new measures and Trump's economic policies will inevitably reduce the dollar's purchasing power. Amid capital flight from traditional assets, Bitcoin will be the main beneficiary, potentially driving its price to $1 million.
Thus, Hayes's forecast is based on the assumption that the Fed will change leadership and transition to a policy of long-term interest rate control, paving the way for a new bull market in the cryptocurrency industry.
