Polymarket and Kalshi: A Battle for Leadership in the Prediction Market
Date: 2025-09-19 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
According to Bernstein analysts, the emergence of a clear regulatory framework is opening up new opportunities for prediction platforms. While centralized exchanges with limited scenarios previously dominated, the trend is now shifting toward blockchain and crypto infrastructure. Two players—Polymarket and Kalshi—have taken center stage, engaging in fierce competition.
Kalshi has prioritized strict compliance and received a license from the CFTC, allowing it to offer legal contracts in the US. Its model is built around binary options on political, economic, and even weather events. The platform requires full user verification through KYC and AML, remaining a traditional exchange while expanding its product line.
Polymarket, by contrast, began as a decentralized service based on Ethereum and Polygon. In 2024, its monthly trading volume reached $2.6 billion, making it the world's largest forecasting platform. However, its operations in the US were restricted by the CFTC. A solution was found through the acquisition of the licensed derivatives exchange QCEX, which opened the door to the US market and allowed it to comply with regulatory requirements.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is not limiting itself to the US: the company has partnered with Solana and Base, enabling it to integrate blockchain and attract new users worldwide. In September, Kalshi's trading volume exceeded $1.3 billion, almost double that of Polymarket, which had a turnover of approximately $700 million. Overall, both platforms processed over $12 billion in 2025.
The rivalry extends beyond politics. Contracts on sports matches, cultural events, and corporate reports can now be traded on the markets. Analysts emphasize that the emerging legal certainty lays the foundation for transforming these services into universal forecasting hubs.
In addition to growing trading volumes, platforms are actively expanding their partner networks. Polymarket has become an official partner of X (formerly Twitter), integrating prediction markets into the social network. Kalshi, in turn, is collaborating with xAI, using Grok's artificial intelligence to analyze odds.
Major crypto companies are also showing interest. Robinhood has already created a prediction hub with Kalshi, recording $1 billion in trades in the second quarter. Coinbase announced plans to launch its own prediction markets as part of its "universal exchange" concept.
For users, this trend means more than just new ways to speculate. The convergence of blockchain, AI, and social media is changing the very approach to information: news and survey data is now supplemented with market signals. Contracts have emerged for specific events such as Nvidia data center profitability or the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
Thus, Polymarket and Kalshi symbolize two different paths of development, but together they form a new market where forecasts become not only entertainment but also a tool for analyzing global processes.
