Arthur Hayes predicts crypto market growth after reaching the TGA target.
Date: 2025-09-22 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: BUSINESS
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, stated that the US Treasury Department has nearly completed the process of replenishing the Treasury General Account (TGA) and will soon reach the $850 billion target. He believes this moment will be a turning point for markets: stopping the liquidity outflow will allow capital to return to crypto assets, driving their value higher.
The TGA is the US Treasury's main settlement account, housed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Funds are primarily sourced from the sale of government bonds (T-bills) and tax revenues. According to MacroMicro, the account balance stood at $816.4 billion as of September 18, 2025. However, just a few days earlier, on September 15, it had already exceeded $850 billion, a record high for the current year.
Hayes noted that approaching $850 billion should be seen as a signal that the current liquidity withdrawal cycle has ended. He predicted that further TGA replenishment will cease, and the accumulated funds will begin to positively impact markets.
The situation escalated in the summer: starting in July 2025, the US Treasury actively increased its reserves in the account, which, in turn, weakened cryptocurrencies and reduced investor interest. The TGA's growth effectively signaled a temporary capital outflow from other segments, including digital assets.
Political considerations also played a key role. On July 1, 2025, the Senate approved a large-scale bill called the "Big Beautiful Bill." Among other things, it included raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. This decision allowed the Treasury Department to more actively issue Treasury bonds and replenish the TGA, which is what caused the current liquidity fluctuations.
Now that the balance is close to the coveted mark, Hayes is convinced that this will be the starting point for a renewed crypto market growth. The expert emphasized that without TGA stabilization, it would be premature to talk about capital returning to cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, according to Hayes, the outlook for the coming months is directly linked to Treasury policy. Once the $850 billion "safety cushion" is fully formed, digital assets will receive a powerful boost for recovery and growth.
