On September 23, Bitcoin (BTC) settled at around $113,000, essentially the same level as at the beginning of the month. Since mid-September, the price has fallen more than 4% following the US Federal Reserve's rate meeting, and from its August high of $124,500, the decline has exceeded 8%. However, since the beginning of the year, the asset has gained over 21%, and since September, it has grown almost 5%. Analysts believe the potential for strengthening remains significant.
Experts note that the overall trend in the cryptocurrency market remains bullish. Key drivers include the expansion of crypto ETF infrastructure and the influx of institutional investment.
Ryan Lee, lead analyst at Bitget Research, predicts that October will be a time of consolidation. In his opinion, Bitcoin will likely move in the range of $105,000–$130,000, and Ethereum in the range of $3,800–$4,500, if the macroeconomic situation remains stable and major players' interest in crypto assets gradually increases.
Andrey Podolyan, senior analyst at the Cryptorg platform, is also confident that the fundamental trend remains upward. He emphasized that sharp declines similar to the recent one occurred several times over the summer and fall, each time followed by a new rise. Podolyan believes it is logical to open medium-term long positions, averaging below current levels.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about 2025. Lee believes that with lower interest rates and increased liquidity, Bitcoin could reach $140,000–$160,000, and Ethereum $5,500–$6,500.
Experts attribute the decline in September to investors' reaction to the actions of the US Federal Reserve. Market participants are awaiting further signals: will there be another rate cut in the fall or will the Fed take a pause?
An additional factor was pressure on the margin market. Mass liquidations triggered a cascading sell-off, pushing the price of BTC to $112,000.
The political backdrop also adds uncertainty. The Donald Trump administration is increasing its influence on the Fed. The recent appointment of Stephen Miran, a former Trump adviser and critic of current rates, has raised concerns about the regulator's independence.
Lee believes such steps could weaken the dollar. As a result, risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, will benefit from cheaper borrowing and capital outflow from traditional currencies.
Despite the correction and political risks, analysts are confident that the crypto market remains bullish. Institutional capital and the prospect of rate cuts provide a foundation for continued growth, and experts view the current declines as an opportunity to add to positions.