Ethereum is vulnerable: Attempt to reach $4,000 faces obstacles
Date: 2025-09-29 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained about 1% and traded near $4,000. However, the market optimism is being dampened by on-chain analytics, which indicate that selling pressure remains.
The main warning sign has been the massive withdrawals from ETH spot ETFs. According to SosoValue, net outflows totaled $796 million over the past week, and in September, investors withdrew a total of $388 million. If this trend continues, this month could be the first since March that Ethereum funds have shown a negative balance.
ETFs are an indicator of institutional investor interest. Their gradual withdrawal demonstrates a decline in confidence and reduces the likelihood that ETH will be able to consolidate above $4,000.
Negative dynamics are also noticeable among long-term Ethereum holders. Glassnode's Liveliness indicator, which tracks the movement of "old" coins, reached a yearly high of 0.70. A rise in this indicator suggests that investors who have held the asset for a long time are starting to take profits.
When Liveliness declines, it indicates increased accumulation: investors are removing coins from exchanges. However, the current rise in the indicator suggests the opposite—tokens are being sold or moved, creating additional pressure on the price.
Key Support Levels and Price Movement Scenarios
Despite the recent 1% rise, the current movement appears unstable. Ethereum is currently holding support at $3,875, but a lack of new demand could lead to a breakout of this level. In this case, the price risks falling to $3,626.
On the other hand, if buyers become active and market sentiment improves, ETH has the potential to rise to $4,211. However, this requires renewed interest from major players and a stabilization of ETF flows.
Thus, Ethereum's short-term future depends on the behavior of institutional investors and the decisions of long-term holders, who are currently inclined to sell. The $3,875 and $4,000 levels are becoming critical points that determine the future trend.
