Bitcoin's Seasonal Rallies in Q4: Causes and Patterns
Date: 2025-10-02 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Historical data shows that Bitcoin exhibits consistent positive dynamics in October, November, and December. Experts from CryptoQuant and the research group XWIN Research noted that this phenomenon is more than random and forms a consistent pattern at the end of the year.
According to their observations, August and September rarely yield significant returns: on average -0.54% and -4.16%, respectively. However, the situation changes dramatically in October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December (+4.75%), when the market picks up.
Analysts emphasized that the well-known Uptober phenomenon is not a one-off event, but rather a signal of the beginning of a larger annual cycle. Its movement is supported by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, and market cycles.
The MVRV indicator provides additional confirmation. From 2016 to 2025, it averaged around 1.8, but in October it consistently rose above 1.9, and by December it was approaching 2.0. This growth reflects increased profits for market participants and growing confidence in the asset.
According to XWIN Research, several key drivers are driving Bitcoin's strength in Q4:
- Capital reallocation. Large investors actively rebalance their portfolios at the end of the year, which ensures an influx of new funds into the market.
- Macroeconomics. Political events in the US, FOMC decisions, and trends toward monetary easing often weaken the dollar, making Bitcoin and other risky assets more attractive.
- Halvings. Historically, periods of reduced supply have coincided with rising prices, reinforcing Q4 trends.
- Psychology. After a sluggish summer, participants return to trading with increased optimism, triggering FOMO and accelerating buying.
Analysts note that such narratives often become self-reinforcing. Optimism in society leads to increased demand, which pushes prices even higher. Ultimately, October serves as the starting point of a broader bullish phase, which often peaks by the end of the year.
As a reminder, on September 30, the US government suspended operations for the first time since 2018, after which the price of Bitcoin exceeded $116,000.
