Uptober Could Be a Test for ETH: Ethereum's Risks and Outlook in October
Date: 2025-10-03 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Ethereum begins October amid expectations for Uptober, a month traditionally favorable for the crypto market. Investors are hoping for an increase in the ETH price following significant investment in the Ethereum ETF in Q3 and support from institutional participants. However, on-chain data shows that potential risks for the altcoin remain high, requiring careful analysis.
The growth of ETH staking, which has long supported network stability and limited coin supply, has now stalled. According to CryptoQuant, the valid balance of ETH in the deposit contract has stabilized at approximately 36 million coins since July 20. This stagnation indicates that investors have become more cautious about placing funds in DeFi protocols. Historically, Ethereum's rally has coincided with active growth in staking, and its slowdown has often led to price stagnation.
Another factor affecting the market is the slowdown in inflows into Ethereum ETFs. After a strong start to the year, investment volumes have plateaued since early August, with inflows and outflows virtually leveling off. According to StrategicETHReserve.xyz, the lack of net buying undermines the key bullish scenario, as the ETF was expected to generate robust demand for ETH. Currently, there is only a balance between buying and selling, and further price growth depends on the resumption of net accumulation in the funds.
Stablecoin liquidity is also declining. Since September 22, average net stablecoin flows to centralized exchanges have become negative, limiting the capital available for spot trading. Analyst Axel Adler notes that despite the $947 million inflow into ETFs, this may not be enough to trigger a full-fledged Uptober rally without increased spot liquidity.
Nevertheless, Ethereum's fundamentals remain strong. If interest in risk assets persists and seasonal and ETF trends prove favorable, the ETH price could still rise. However, stagnant staking, weak ETF flows, and declining market liquidity serve as a reminder of the need for caution.
Investors must consider all these factors, carefully assess risks, and conduct their own research, as October could bring both opportunities for profit and potential disappointments.
