Polymarket predicts a 71% chance of a prolonged US government shutdown.
Date: 2025-10-07 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
According to Polymarket data, 71% of market participants predict the US government shutdown will last until October 15th or longer. Most expect the crisis to end within a month and not exceed the record-breaking period of 2018-2019.
Activity on the platform around this forecast was high: the total betting volume exceeded $1.4 million out of a pool of $4 million. For individual contracts, the probability of the shutdown lasting between 10 and 29 days is estimated at 66%, while only 29% of players believe the shutdown will last more than a month, which would make it the longest in US history after the record set during the Donald Trump administration.
Analysts attribute the current political uncertainty to the failure of temporary funding resolutions. Due to the lack of compromise between the House and Senate, government agencies are left without an approved budget, leading to the shutdown.
Some experts note that the instability in Washington is spurring increased interest in Bitcoin. In recent days, the cryptocurrency has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $125,000, which is attributed to a flight of capital into digital safe-haven assets.
The shutdown also poses risks for the business sector. It could delay government contracts, permits, and grants, as well as slow activity in the initial public offering (IPO) market. Equity podcast hosts Kirsten Korosek, Maxwell Zeff, and Anthony Ha noted that the current situation "poses greater risk for startups than before" and could "slow down the active IPO season."
Rumors about a Polymarket token had previously surfaced in the community, further stimulating platform users' interest in forecasts of political events and financial indicators.
Thus, amid the US government shutdown, Polymarket investors and participants continue to actively assess risks and bet on the duration of the crisis, reflecting the market's high engagement in tracking political uncertainty and its impact on financial assets.
