Arthur Hayes explained why the Bitcoin cycle could last longer than expected.
Date: 2025-10-10 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Arthur Hayes, one of the most renowned crypto market analysts, recalled that Bitcoin's history has included three main cycles: the "Genesis" (2009-2013), the "ICO period" (2013-2017), and the "Covid" (2017-2021). Each of these cycles ended with a rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency approximately four years after the previous peak. However, the expert believes that the current cycle is unfolding according to different laws.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin's growth in the past was explained not only by the halving, but primarily by the expansion of the global money supply in dollars and yuan. He noted that during the first cycle, Bitcoin's price jumped due to large-scale liquidity injections into the US economy and China's active credit policy. In 2015, the yuan's devaluation triggered a monetary surge that supported the crypto market despite the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. The pandemic period became a time of "helicopter money," when the Fed doubled the dollar supply and cut rates to zero, creating ideal conditions for the growth of digital assets.
Hayes believes the current cycle, which began in 2021, will last longer than previous ones. He attributes this to the economic policies of President Donald Trump, who intends to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates, deregulating banks, and increasing the availability of mortgages. These measures, according to the expert, could lead to additional capital inflows into the cryptocurrency sector.
Hayes also expects the Federal Reserve to continue its policy of making borrowing cheaper, and the Treasury Department under Scott Bessent to increase the issuance of Treasury bills. He believes this policy will help control excess liquidity through the reverse repurchase program, making money cheaper and more accessible. This, in turn, could create favorable conditions for a new surge in Bitcoin.
"The monetary policies of major powers have always had a decisive influence on Bitcoin's price. And this time will be no exception," Hayes emphasized.
Meanwhile, Lightspark CEO David Marcus stated in an interview with Bloomberg Open Interest that many investors still underestimate Bitcoin's potential. He predicted that the world's leading cryptocurrency could reach $1.3 million if the weakening dollar and growing interest in decentralized assets continue.
