Circle to benefit most from new stablecoin regulations in the US, Bernstein predicts
Date: 2025-10-15 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
Analytics firm Bernstein has released a report predicting that Circle will be the main beneficiary of new stablecoin regulations in the US. Experts estimate that USDC market capitalization could increase from its current $76 billion to $220 billion by the end of 2027, accounting for approximately one-third of the global stablecoin market.
Bernstein predicts rapid growth for the industry: the total market size for "digital dollars" could reach $670 billion by 2027 and exceed $4 trillion by 2035. Analysts note that the passage of the GENIUS Act in July of this year created a federal framework for regulating "payment stablecoins," restricting the activities of foreign issuers and setting new standards for companies like Circle. These tokens are now considered digital money, not securities or bank deposits.
Bernstein emphasized that Circle has built its business from the ground up with strict regulatory requirements in mind—it maintains 100% reserve coverage in cash and U.S. bonds, publishes daily reports, and undergoes independent audits. As a result, USDC has already been called "the most transparent and regulated stablecoin in the world."
According to CoinMarketCap, Tether (USDT) currently maintains a dominant market share of approximately 62%, while USDC accounts for approximately 29%. Other players, including USDe, DAI, and USD1, control significantly smaller shares. However, Bernstein is confident that Circle's model, built on partnerships with Coinbase, Binance, OKX, and other major platforms, provides the company with a competitive advantage that is difficult to replicate.
Experts note that USDC is already integrated into 28 blockchains, and transaction volume in the first half of 2025 exceeded $3 trillion—a 120% increase year-on-year. Going forward, Circle plans to expand its partnerships with companies such as Fiserv, FIS, Corpay, and Shopify, strengthening its market position.
Bernstein also predicts that Circle's profits will grow by approximately 47% annually, despite a possible decline in interest rates. The company's revenue is gradually shifting from interest income to payment services, cross-chain transfers, and infrastructure development.
According to analysts, the stablecoin market will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with USDC expected to retain approximately 30% of its share thanks to the development of the Circle Payments Network and the launch of its own Arc blockchain. All this, they say, makes the company a key player in shaping the future financial infrastructure of the Internet.
