Bitcoin Enters New Phase of Bull Cycle, CryptoQuant Notes
Date: 2025-10-16 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Analysts at the CryptoQuant platform point out that two key on-chain metrics—NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) and realized market capitalization structure—are showing signs of a "speculative" phase of the current bull cycle. The NUPL index is currently at 0.52, which has historically coincided with the transition from optimism to euphoria. This means that most investors are already profitable, which traditionally pushes the market toward increased speculative trades.
Meanwhile, the share of short-term holders in Bitcoin's realized market capitalization has reached 44%, an all-time high. This trend, according to experts, indicates profit-taking by long-term investors and the growing influence of new entrants with large asset holdings. In previous cycles, such changes occurred closer to the end of the market growth phase, but the current dynamics have unique characteristics.
What distinguishes the current cycle is the strong support of institutional investment in the market. Capital inflows into spot ETFs, the increase in the aggregate value of stablecoins, and the activity of major players are creating a balance between buyers and sellers. As a result, the market euphoria appears more stable and less susceptible to sharp corrections than in previous periods.
CryptoQuant notes that this situation is creating a kind of "stable bullish regime," where positive investor sentiment persists but without excessive volatility. This could prolong the cycle and reduce the likelihood of a sudden downturn.
Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts previously noted that the mass liquidations of positions on October 10 and 11 demonstrated that Bitcoin's price remains closely linked to stock index performance. They believe that the world's leading cryptocurrency is increasingly dependent on traditional markets, making its reaction to macroeconomic events more predictable.
Thus, experts agree that Bitcoin has entered an unusual stage of its cycle, where traditional signs of overheating coexist with signs of market maturity. Despite the speculative nature of these developments, fundamental factors point to the formation of a sustainable uptrend, distinct from previous explosive surges.
