Bitcoin Between Volatility and Politics: What to Expect in the New Week
Date: 2025-10-21 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
In recent weeks, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has experienced sharp fluctuations: from a new all-time high above $126,000, it fell below $105,000 and then consolidated around $111,000. A 3% rise by October 20th marked the market's attempt to recover from a deep decline. Experts believe that Bitcoin's dynamics are now closely linked to US President Donald Trump's foreign policy statements.
Alexander Kraiko, a leading analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets, noted that the price of the leading cryptocurrency is once again moving in sync with political statements. After Trump announced possible tariffs on Chinese goods last week, the market plummeted. But already on October 19, the president stated that relations with China "will become good" and also mentioned his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. These words led to a partial market recovery.
Kraiko emphasized that Bitcoin's behavior in recent days has almost completely mirrored the dynamics of the US stock market premarket – participants are waiting for the opening bell to determine its future direction. According to him, if Bitcoin consolidates above $111,000, the chances of a new record will increase again.
The analyst also highlighted three key events of the week:
- On October 21, the US Federal Reserve will hold a conference on cryptocurrencies and digital payments;
- On October 22, a senator's roundtable will be held with representatives of major crypto companies, including Coinbase, Chainlink, Galaxy, Kraken, Uniswap, Solana, Circle, Ripple, Jito, and a16z;
- The US consumer price index will be released on October 24. A higher-than-expected rise in inflation could put pressure on Bitcoin.
GIS Mining CEO Vasily Girya noted that the market is currently undergoing a "structural revaluation" of assets. He stated that amid the ongoing US shutdown and the suspension of macroeconomic data publications, investors are acting cautiously, and uncertainty is increasing market vulnerability.
Girya added that low liquidity on crypto exchanges makes the market sensitive to the slightest fluctuations. Market makers are removing orders, and large players prefer to hold assets out of trading, providing space for highly leveraged speculators. This leads to cascades of liquidations and sharp spikes in volatility.
The expert believes that if current conditions persist, the market remains vulnerable, but the end of the shutdown or moderate inflation data could signal stabilization. Bitcoin is currently trading in the $102,000–$116,000 range, and if it manages to consolidate above $112,200, the market could begin to recover. Otherwise, the risk of further decline remains.
