According to renowned analyst PlanB, relying solely on the four-year halving cycle when forecasting Bitcoin's dynamics is a mistake. He noted that the past three cycles did indeed see the most profitable periods—six months before and eighteen months after the halving. However, this is not enough to draw confident conclusions about the future price movement.
"Currently, Bitcoin has not undergone a key phase transformation," explains PlanB. "Therefore, it is too early to expect a new price peak this year. It will likely shift to the next few years."
The expert believes that a sudden surge in the price of the world's leading cryptocurrency is now unlikely. He believes the market has entered a stable stage, where institutional investors and large funds play a key role. This situation makes the market less susceptible to speculative fluctuations and reduces the likelihood of deep bearish trends similar to those observed previously.
PlanB emphasizes that the gradual formation of a new equilibrium will bring long-term stability to Bitcoin. He suggests that in the coming years, the price will reflect real economic factors and demand levels, rather than short-term trader sentiment.
Analysts at the CryptoQuant platform have also noted a similar trend. According to them, the Bitcoin market is currently in what they call a "phase of distrust." Similar periods were already observed before the powerful rallies in September 2024 and April 2025, when the Bitcoin price rose sharply after prolonged fluctuations.
Despite expectations of slower growth, experts are confident that market stability will have a positive impact on Bitcoin's long-term development. Strengthening trust among major players and reducing volatility are creating the conditions for the emergence of a more mature financial ecosystem, where Bitcoin can serve as a digital asset with stable value, rather than simply a speculative instrument.
Thus, while we shouldn't expect immediate record-breaking performance, the current stage could lay the foundation for healthier and more sustainable Bitcoin growth in the future.