Why Bitcoin Is Still Lagging Gold, According to Bitwise CIO
Date: 2025-10-23 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that the recent surge in interest in gold could herald the next stage of Bitcoin's rally. In his analysis, he highlighted a key difference between the two assets: the sources of demand.
Since 2022, central banks have become the main drivers of gold's rally, systematically buying up the precious metal. These purchases, according to Hougan, have driven the price increase by 57% since the beginning of 2025. The situation is different for Bitcoin: spot ETFs and corporate investments provide the main support for the price, creating a less stable foundation for long-term growth.
Hougan noted that the price movement mechanisms for the two assets are still similar. When a large, stable buyer emerged in the gold market in 2022, investors focused on short-term profits began locking in profits. This temporarily slowed growth, but after selling activity subsided, prices surged higher. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin could follow a similar path as the supply of coins for sale dwindles.
According to him, since the launch of the ETF, funds have accumulated over 1.5 million BTC—significantly exceeding the amount miners produced during the same period. Despite the obvious shortfall, the cryptocurrency's price remains under selling pressure.
Hougan believes that as ETF and corporate buying continues, and the supply of Bitcoin available for sale declines, the market will inevitably emerge from the current consolidation phase. Then, he argues, Bitcoin could replicate gold's pattern—sustained accumulation followed by rapid growth.
"Gold has already shown how this works, but not exactly when," he emphasized.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading near $108,100, down approximately 0.4% in 24 hours.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Keşmeci noted that selling pressure in the digital gold market is gradually easing. CoinCare contributor also drew attention to the NVT indicator, which measures the ratio between Bitcoin's market capitalization and the network's transaction volume.
According to him, this indicator has historically accurately indicated price highs. When the NVT value goes negative, the asset is considered undervalued, indicating healthy growth potential. Conversely, exceeding 3 signals an overheated market.
"We are far from the peak—the current cycle is developing slowly but steadily," CoinCare noted.
Analyst PlanB also previously stated that fundamental indicators point to a continuation of the bullish trend, despite short-term corrections.
