Bitcoin's decline increased pressure on ETF investors and dampened trader interest.
Date: 2025-11-25 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Last week's crypto market crash was the deepest since the beginning of the year and had a significant impact on both ETF investors and the options market. According to analysis by Bybit and Block Scholes, Bitcoin fell from around $105,000 to below $82,000 in a short period of time, completely erasing the gains accumulated since January. Meanwhile, the average entry price for spot ETF holders is around $89,000, making most positions unprofitable.
The acceleration of the decline coincided with the release of fresh US labor market statistics: 119,000 job creation in September was significantly higher than expected, and the subsequent announcement by the BLS that there would be no report for October heightened uncertainty. Amid these signals, market participants concluded that the Federal Reserve may be in no rush to cut rates again in December. The regulator only cut rates for the second time this year at the end of October, which had previously fueled hopes for policy easing.
Some analysts continue to predict a possible "Santa Rally" if the Fed changes its rhetoric. However, some experts, including the CryptoQuant team, predict a further decline in Bitcoin to the $60,000–$80,000 range unless the Fed takes additional steps to ease monetary conditions.
The options market's reaction is also highlighted: short-term volatility has sharply increased, and bearish put option premiums have increased significantly. Implicit volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum has exceeded levels seen immediately after the October 10th crash, forming an inverted curve indicating the prevalence of hedging strategies.
Traders are pricing in more than 10% volatility premiums on weekly put contracts, reflecting increased demand for defensive positions. Meanwhile, total open interest in major assets remains around $9 billion—almost half the level before the October crash. Retail traders on Bybit are particularly reluctant to initiate new long positions, despite the significant price decline.
Bitcoin's decline to levels last seen in the spring was accompanied by a major wave of liquidations—over $1.9 billion. Experts note that the asset's return to the range below $90,000 has become a symbolic turning point in sentiment. Not only has Bitcoin lost its entire yearly gains, but it has also significantly lagged behind tech stocks and gold, while the average entry price for ETF investors has been broken from above.
Options markets are also clearly bearish: a revolt against levels known since April has led to a significant increase in demand for off-price put contracts. Although the market has already reversed some of the negative signals, the overall tone remains overwhelmingly pessimistic. JPMorgan analysts previously pointed to potential growth to $170,000 over the next year, but emphasized the importance of the support zone around $94,000, which has now been successfully broken downwards.
