Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Rising amid Low Hash Price

CoinWarz predicts that a new network parameter adjustment is possible on December 10 at block 927,360. If this prediction is confirmed, the difficulty will rise from 149.30 trillion to approximately 154.72 trillion. The previous change, implemented on November 27, by contrast, reduced the figures from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, bringing the average block generation time back to approximately 9.97 minutes—slightly faster than the target 10 minutes. However, the reduction was not a turning point: even with the reduction in mining efficiency, profitability remains extremely weak.

The hashrate price, which reflects the daily income per unit of computing power, is hovering near its lower bounds. According to the Hashrate Index, the figure stood at approximately $38.6 per PH/s per day at the end of November and only recently rose from below $35, set on November 21. For comparison, a figure of around $40 per PH/s is often considered the minimum breakeven point. Below this level, many miners are forced to choose between shutting down their equipment and risking financial losses.

Weak profitability isn't the only factor weighing on the industry. Over the past twelve months, the total debt of mining companies has reached approximately $12.7 billion—a nearly fivefold increase in a year. Additional pressure is being created by mining tax initiatives in certain regions, including the currently discussed regulation in New York, as well as geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which affect the production and supply of specialized equipment. Any delays or restrictions in access to equipment could exacerbate the current pricing pressure on miners.

Meanwhile, China is once again strengthening its position in the global hashrate distribution. By the end of Q4 2025, its share exceeded 14%, returning the country to third place among the largest mining centers in the world. This confirms that a significant portion of computing power remains outside the US, despite domestic discussions about energy cost regulation and tax policy.

Therefore, December may be a month when the industry will once again face the need to adapt. If the predicted difficulty increase is confirmed, operating costs and pressure on profitability will increase, and miners will be forced to seek optimization options or prepare for temporary equipment shutdowns. Despite periodic fluctuations, the market continues to experience increased stress, and the coming weeks will reveal how resilient ecosystem participants prove.