Grayscale Predicts an Institutional Turnaround in the Crypto Market in 2026
Date: 2025-12-17 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
The investment firm Grayscale has released an analytical report on the outlook for digital assets in 2026, which foreshadows the beginning of a new phase in the crypto market's development. According to the analysts, the market is entering a period of profound structural change, where institutional investors, regulatory certainty, and the integration of blockchain solutions into traditional finance will play a key role.
One of the report's central points is the possible abandonment of the "four-year cycle" theory for Bitcoin. Grayscale notes that the current bullish trend does not follow the usual logic associated with halvings. Historically, market peaks have occurred 12-18 months after the miner reward reduction, but the current growth has continued for over three years, despite the halving that took place in April 2024. Analysts believe that 2026 could be the point at which the previous cyclical model will lose its relevance.
The company also expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high as early as the first half of 2026. An additional symbolic factor will be the mining of the 20 millionth BTC, which is expected to occur in March. This event, according to Grayscale, will reinforce the perception of Bitcoin as a scarce digital asset.
The macroeconomic backdrop plays a significant role in the positive forecast. Analysts point to growing government debt and inflationary risks for fiat currencies, which are increasing investor interest in alternative stores of value. In this context, Bitcoin and Ethereum are viewed as digital analogs of commodities and alternative monetary systems with a transparent and limited supply.
Grayscale cites regulatory developments, particularly in the United States, as another key growth driver. The situation began to change after Grayscale won its court case against the SEC, paving the way for the launch of spot crypto ETPs. In 2024, Bitcoin and Ethereum products were approved, and in 2025, the GENIUS Act was passed, laying the groundwork for stablecoin regulation. The company expects that in 2026, the US Congress will approve comprehensive legislation on the crypto market structure, allowing for the legal issuance and trading of digital assets on regulated platforms.
According to Grayscale, the main channel for institutional capital inflows is exchange-traded products. Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETPs, the global market for such instruments has attracted tens of billions of dollars, while the share of crypto assets in institutional portfolios remains below 0.5%. The company believes that 2026 will be the year when large funds' participation will begin to significantly expand.
Analysts emphasize that the current growth is more restrained compared to previous cycles. Instead of sharp speculative surges, the market is showing moderate dynamics driven by systematic buying by institutional players. This reduces the likelihood of a large-scale and protracted collapse.
In conclusion, Grayscale concludes that the crypto market is entering a stage of maturity. Investors will focus on projects with real utility, sustainable revenues, and regulatory compliance, while not all tokens will be able to successfully adapt to the new institutional reality.
