Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin's 2026 Prospects Remain in Question
Date: 2025-12-23 Author: Henry Casey Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Galaxy Digital's analytics division has concluded that a combination of macroeconomic factors and internal changes in the crypto market makes Bitcoin's future dynamics extremely difficult to predict. Experts point to the concurrent influence of political risks, an unstable economic environment, and divergent trends among digital assets, creating an unconventional market environment.
Alex Thorne, Head of Corporate Research at Galaxy Digital, described 2026 as one of the most challenging years for constructing price scenarios. He notes that the market is in a state where traditional forecasting models are losing their effectiveness due to the high degree of chaos in the market. Thorne does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs, but he is not certain of this scenario.
The analyst bases his assessments on a Galaxy Research report on the outlook for the cryptocurrency, DeFi, and artificial intelligence sectors. The report examines structural market shifts, as well as the scale and pace of institutional participation, which are gradually changing Bitcoin's price behavior.
According to Galaxy Digital's current observations, the digital asset market remains in a protracted bearish phase. Bitcoin has yet to form a sustainable uptrend, and the $100,000–$105,000 zone remains a key resistance level. Thorne believes that until the price consolidates above this range, the likelihood of a deepening correction remains.
The analysts paid particular attention to the derivatives segment. Data from the Bitcoin options market demonstrates a nearly equal chance of both scenarios materializing. Market participants are pricing in equal probabilities of a price move toward $70,000 and $130,000 by mid-2026. A similar picture is observed in long-term expectations: by the end of the year, the market sees equal chances of reaching $50,000 and $250,000.
At the same time, Galaxy Digital notes signs of gradual market maturation. Bitcoin's long-term volatility is declining, which the analyst attributes to the growing institutional presence. Large players are increasingly using complex options strategies and yield generation programs, which smooths out sharp price fluctuations.
Despite the uncertainty of the coming years, the company maintains a positive outlook on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Galaxy believes that institutional adoption will continue, and the asset's inclusion in the model portfolios of major investment platforms could provide a stable capital influx.
Based on this, Galaxy Digital continues to forecast Bitcoin's rise to $250,000 by the end of 2027, viewing the current instability as a transitional stage in the market's development.
