Prediction Markets Are Not Manipulated — Kalshi Founder
Date: 2024-10-21 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: BUSINESS
A 20-point lead for former President Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris on the Polymarket platform has sparked speculation about possible manipulation. However, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour has dismissed these concerns by presenting similar data from his prediction market.
Mansour stressed that claims that a few big players are influencing the outcome in Trump’s favor are untrue. According to him, “the average bet size on Harris is larger than on Trump,” with $85 for Harris versus $58 for Trump.
Mansour also noted that Kalshi has more users betting on Trump, which supports the 20% advantage seen on Polymarket. He also reminded that Kalshi is an exclusively US prediction market, unlike Polymarket, which reduces the risk of foreign interference in the results.
Mansour concluded by saying that prediction markets have become “a new source of truth, free of bias.”
The use of prediction markets in place of traditional polls has been hotly debated. Figures like Elon Musk argue that prediction markets are more accurate because real money is wagered. However, critics point out that restricting access to platforms like Polymarket to American users could undermine the credibility of the data.
It’s worth noting that Harris briefly led Trump on Polymarket in August and September, but Trump began to dramatically increase his chances of winning in the first half of October.
