Quid Pro Stablecoin: How Major US Banks Are Taking Over the Stablecoin Market
Date: 2025-07-04 Author: Oliver Abernathy Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has released an essay titled Quid Pro Stablecoin, in which he explained why the Treasury Department, led by Scott Bessent, is promoting the idea of mass adoption of stablecoins. According to Hayes, large banks will receive a powerful tool for hidden quantitative easing, and fintech companies like Circle will eventually cede the market to them.
The main task of the US Treasury Department is to finance growing government spending by issuing bonds. But investors are reluctant to buy long-term securities with low yields, and rates are constantly rising. Previously, this issue was resolved through the Fed's policy of printing money and buying bonds, but now this mechanism is effectively frozen.
Hayes believes that the issuance of stablecoins by Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks will unlock up to $6.8 trillion in liquidity. This money will be used to purchase government bonds and return funds back to the economy. As an example, he cites JPMorgan, which has already launched its own token JPMD on the Base network. Unlike traditional deposits, such stablecoins operate around the clock and do not require the costs of outdated compliance departments and operational services.
According to calculations, the transition to tokenized deposits will allow banks to reduce compliance costs by almost $20 billion annually. In addition, new regulatory relaxations will reduce capital requirements, freeing up about $5.5 trillion for the purchase of short-term high-yield treasury securities.
The GENIUS bill effectively closes the door to non-bank issuers: tech companies like Meta are prohibited from issuing their own stablecoins. Issuers like Circle will not be able to pay interest to token holders, so banks will have no serious competitors. In addition, TBTF banks have government guarantees, which increases customer confidence and allows them to safely transfer regular deposits to new digital assets.
Arthur Hayes is confident that this "conveyor belt" will launch a huge influx of liquidity into the market and create conditions for a new bull cycle in the crypto industry. According to his forecasts, Bitcoin can reach $ 1 million by 2028.
This arrangement is beneficial to all participants: the state receives cheap money to finance the debt, banks almost double their capitalization, and stock market investors get an incentive to hold assets in new forms. Fintech, according to Hayes, will only have the role of extras - without access to $ 6.8 trillion in deposits from large banks, it will be difficult for them to compete.
Thus, Quid Pro Stablecoin is a scenario where the Ministry of Finance, large banks and a new wave of stablecoins form a closed system of supporting government debt and the stock market, while killing off independent players.
