Large wallets with capital in stablecoin store assets on exchanges, but the volumes are hardly enough for a cryptocurrency rally
Exchange balances in stablecoins tether (USDT) and USD coin (USDC) do not indicate that investors are preparing for a rally in bitcoin (BTC) in the foreseeable future. This is hinted at by the figures published by analysts at Santiment.
The data presented indicates that most of the top 10 stablecoin wallets store assets on exchanges. What exactly, is not specified. However, by itself, storage on exchanges can hardly talk about preparing for a bitcoin rally. As you can see in the chart below, the supply of stablecoin on trading floors has been steadily falling since the beginning of 2023.
At the same time, USDT investors seem to have stopped withdrawing stablecoins from exchange wallets and suspended the downward trend in early June. At the time of writing, just over 21% of the total USDT supply (~$17.5 billion) is listed on centralized exchanges.
At the same time, USDC users continue to withdraw funds from the exchange to this day (less than 0.5% of the total USDC supply or slightly less than $88 million remains on the sites). It is unclear whether USDC is withdrawn to the wallets of the issuing company Circle for conversion into the US dollar.
Previously, Kaiko analysts noted that USDC, for example, is used mainly in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, rather than centralized exchanges. At the same time, experts noted that the weak liquidity of USDC on centralized exchanges may have affected the short-term gap in the stablecoin's peg to the US dollar. It seems that the story around USDC is repeating itself again.
The chart also shows that shortly before the pump of the bitcoin exchange rate from $25,000 to $31,000, the supply of stablecoins on exchanges also increased. An increase in liquidity in a stablecoin can signal investors' interest in buying cryptocurrency. However, since mid-June, there are no outstanding hints of a new pump. Since then, the supply in USDC has continued to fall, and there are no large capital inflows from USDT.